Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Southern electoral and political analysis

Chris Kromm of Facing South reports:

* The race divide. 62% of Southern whites voted Republican, while 87% of African-Americans, 57% of Latinos, and 52% of “others” voted Democrat. This is ominous for Republicans, given that the four states nationally with the fastest-growing Latino population are in the South, and Georgia and Mississippi are on the brink of joining Texas as so-called “majority minority” states.

* Young Southerners. In 2006, they preferred Democrats 51% to 48%.

* Class war. 55% of Southerners making under $50,000 a year – 40% of those polled – voted Democrat. The 13% of those polled in a union household favored Democrats 56% to 44%.

* Conflicting faiths. Southern Protestants -- 70% of those polled – voted Republican by a 58% to 41% margin, but all other faith groups favored Democrats. More than one out of four Southern white evangelicals (27%) – perceived as the hardened core of the Republican Party – voted for Democrats in 2006.

* Gender and marriage. Surprisingly, Southern married women were the staunchest GOP supporters in 2006, with only 40% voting for Democrats (41% of married men did). By contrast, 60% of Southern unmarried men, and 63% of unmarried women, favored Democrats in 2006.

Two pictures emerge from this and other data. One is that the Republican Party is increasingly the party not of "the South" in general, as some pundits claim, but older, wealthy and white Southern voters – a base that puts the GOP on the wrong side of all the key demographic trends unfolding in the South.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Ok... trying this again (what do you think of the new Google blogger reality? I hate it)...

This is encouraging, one might look at these numbers in isolation and shrug "well, those are pretty close, what of it?"; any chance of getting some of the 00, 02, or 04 numbers to compare and see how important these gains in Republican states really are?

Happy turkey, gobble gobble (go Chiefs!)

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